http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/...&page=PERDiem-090417


The playoffs start on Saturday, so it's time to set the computers spinning and get down to the nitty-gritty.

Thus, a bit of a double feature: I'm giving you who I'm picking and why, and will also tell you what our Playoff Odds tool thinks. We had it play out the postseason 5,000 times, and based on each team's final Hollinger Power Ranking and accounting for home-court advantage, it reported back to us.

We put our thumb on the scale only once, adjusting Boston's Power Ranking down to 103.4 (per my calculation Thursday) in light of Kevin Garnett's likely absence for the entire playoffs.

Before you see the percentages, let me offer a critique of my own system. This method works great for projecting regular-season results, but for the postseason it produces a more distributed set of outcomes than you're likely to see in real life. In other words, it's too friendly to underdogs. No. 8 seeds, for example, are 3-47 in the past quarter-century, but Detroit and Utah were given 9 percent and 20 percent chances, respectively, of pulling off what would be massive upsets.

That said, the relative percentages of each team give us a glimpse into which teams have the best chance of advancing in each round, not to mention which clubs have the best shot at winning the whole enchilada.

Speaking of which, the table below shows how the Power Rankings see this thing playing out. As suspected, the Cavs and Lakers have the best odds of holding the Larry O'Brien Trophy this June, followed by Orlando and Portland. Nobody else's odds eclipse 5 percent in this exercise, which means there are basically four teams worth paying attention to this postseason.

Chances of winning the title based on computer projection
Team Odds of winning title
Cleveland 31.3
L.A. Lakers 19.3
Orlando 15.7
Portland 11.8
Denver 4.4
Boston 4.1
Houston 4.1

But before we get too deep, let's backtrack. I'm going to start with the first round and project through every playoff series until I have a winner, and we'll throw in the projected odds along the way:

FIRST ROUND

Eastern Conference


Atlanta (53.9%) vs. Miami (46.1%): The computer sees this as the most evenly matched first-round series, and that matches the general perception that this one will go at least six games, if not the full seven.

Two key factors the computer can't account for will likely swing it. The first is the fact that Dwyane Wade can play a lot more minutes than he did in the regular season, which should give the Heat a big boost. The second, however, is how much success the Hawks have had defending Wade this season. In the three games before their meaningless final meeting Tuesday, Miami scored 73, 83 and 95 points against Atlanta.

I'm guessing the latter trend, combined with the Hawks' home-court advantage, will be the one that prevails, but not without some gnashing of teeth along the way.

My prediction: Hawks in 7


Boston (69.5%) vs. Chicago (30.5%): The absence of Garnett and the Bulls' strong play down the stretch combine to make the upset possible here, as Chicago has played much better since the midseason trade for John Salmons and Brad Miller. In fact, Chicago's 18-11 mark since the All-Star break isn't much different from Boston's 18-9.

I'm still taking Boston for a few reasons. First, Chicago's biggest advantage is its bench, and bench players become less important in the playoffs when the starters are hogging most of the minutes. Second, the Ben Gordon-Ray Allen matchup is a tough one for the Bulls defensively, and if they have to turn to Kirk Hinrich for extended burn to guard Allen, it will hurt them offensively.

Finally, if it comes down to a final game, Boston's passionate crowd can turn things in the Celtics' favor. But I'm not sure it will get to that point.

My prediction: Celtics in 6


Orlando (85.1%) vs. Philadelphia (14.9%): Other than Cleveland-Detroit, this is the series in which the computer sees the least possibility of an upset. Orlando won the regular-season series 3-0, and although Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis both enter the series banged up, the Magic still have presumptive defensive player of the year Dwight Howard and a brigade of 3-point shooters.

About all the 76ers can hang their hat on is that Turkoglu and Lewis might be subpar, or perhaps absent entirely, at the start of the series, and the fact that Orlando had an above-average turnover rate. Few teams are better at converting those miscues into transition buckets than the Sixers, and they'll need to do it repeatedly to avoid going up against Orlando's mighty D in the half court.

Perhaps the injuries will be enough to extend the series, but that's about as much optimism as I can summon for Philly.

My prediction: Magic in 5

Cleveland (91%) vs. Detroit (9%): Let's not waste everybody's time. My prediction: Cavs in 4

Western Conference


Los Angeles (80%) vs. Utah (20%): The Power Rankings still see the Jazz as a decent team despite their late-season face-plant, which is why their odds look surprisingly strong here. But two huge factors mitigate against any hope of a Jazz upset, however.

First of all, as we saw a year ago, they have nobody who can guard Kobe Bryant, and their basic strategy of "foul first, ask questions later" should result in a parade of Lakers to the free-throw line.

Second, the Jazz don't appear physically or mentally to be in the same shape they were as recently as six weeks ago: Utah went only 7-11 since its 12-game winning streak was snapped by Atlanta on March 11.

The Jazz were able to beat L.A. once in Utah -- at the end of a long Lakers road trip, mind you -- and they'll probably be able to do it once again, but given their 1-20 mark in road games against teams with winning records, I see little hope of an upset.

My prediction: Lakers in 5


Denver (70%) vs. New Orleans (30%): Welcome to the mystery bracket. Three teams -- L.A., Cleveland and Orlando -- seem reasonably safe bets to make it to the conference finals, but who knows what's going to be happen in this quadrant?

The Hornets were 10-11 in their final 21 games and finished just 14th in the Power Rankings, so you can expect this system to be pessimistic about their chances.

On the other hand, the Hornets were 32-18 when Tyson Chandler played, and 17-19 when he didn't, and Chandler should be back -- albeit diminished -- for the opener. He's recovering from a sprained ankle and isn't at full strength yet, but the Hornets' frontcourt depth is so woeful that he should still make a big difference.

Of course, the Nuggets can make a similar case, having been 44-20 when Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups both played, and those two are in far less dire straits health-wise than Chandler. A second pro-Denver wild card: Anthony shot much worse than his historic norms in the regular season and could bounce back in the playoffs.

Throw in the Nuggets' home-altitude advantage, and this could be over fairly quickly.

My prediction: Nuggets in 5


San Antonio (55%) vs. Dallas (45%): Here's another one the computer sees as a virtual toss-up.

The Spurs are in a compromised state right now, with Manu Ginobili out with an injury and Tim Duncan hobbled by bad knees, but they deserve a fair amount of respect based on track record alone. Additionally, Tony Parker is a matchup problem for the Mavs, with no Dallas guard having the speed to stay in front of him.

On the other hand, let me give you two salient sets of numbers: the Spurs' 22-16 record without Ginobili and Dallas's 33-19 record when Josh Howard plays. Since Howard will be present (though still troubled by a bad ankle) and Ginobili won't, one has to think Dallas might have the upper hand. Additionally, Dirk Nowitzki is nearly as bad a matchup for the Spurs as Parker is for Dallas.

Given how even they appear on paper, I expect a knock-down, drag-out series similar to their 2006 seven-game classic in intensity, if not in importance. And once again, I see the Mavs prevailing.

My prediction: Mavs in 6


Portland (64.3%) vs. Houston (34.7%): In many ways this is the most interesting first-round series. First of all, if somebody is going to beat the Lakers in the West, it will be one of these two teams. Second, things look fairly even on paper, especially after we account for the Rockets' improved play since Tracy McGrady went out: They went 22-8 minus the hobbled T-Mac.

But most of all I like this series because it will help us with a big question: What matters more, head-to-head matchups or overall regular-season performance? The Blazers undoubtedly have the edge in the latter category, winning 54 games with the league's fifth-best scoring margin and coming on like gangbusters down the stretch. Not only did the Blazers match Houston's 22-8 mark in their final 30 games, they did it without a loss to a single sub-.500 team.

However, Houston won two of the three head-to-head meetings, and the only one they lost came courtesy of a miraculous last-second shot by Portland's Brandon Roy. That has to give the Rockets confidence that they can end their string of first-round defeats, and if you believe experience matters, the fact that this is the Blazers' first rodeo also works to Houston's advantage.

That said, I like Portland here. The young Blazers' increasingly steady play over the second half of the season bodes well for their postseason, as does their playing style: The league's slowest-paced regular-season team isn't going to be thrown off by a slower postseason pace.

My prediction: Blazers in 6

SECOND ROUND

Eastern Conference


Cleveland (83.6%) vs. Atlanta (16.4%): The Hawks match up pretty well against LeBron; at least, as well as you can reasonably hope to. So the guy who kills them might be Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Long big men give the Hawks fits because Al Horford and Josh Smith are too short to affect their shots.

And then there's the little matter of how they're going to score on the Cavs' vaunted defense. Joe Johnson will have to play James to something close to a draw for the Hawks to have any chance, but by this point Atlanta might have already won its Super Bowl by making it out of the first round.

The Hawks' raucous playoff crowds -- a far cry from the mausoleum conditions seen through most of the regular season -- might get them a game, much as it fueled them against Boston last year, but that's about it.

My prediction: Cavs in 5


Boston (35.3%) vs. Orlando (64.7%): This is the only series in which the computer prefers the lower-seeded team, as the Magic would likely be back at full strength by this point and the Celtics are undeniably weakened by the loss of Garnett (something I detailed in Thursday's column).

I've seen Orlando play Boston in person twice without Garnett (technically, Garnett played in the second game, but that wasn't the real KG), and while the Magic won both games, they hardly looked impressive in doing so. Even without Garnett, the Celtics are able to limit Dwight Howard's effectiveness thanks to the physical post D of Kendrick Perkins and their strong team concepts, and their struggling bench won't matter quite as much in postseason games if the starters play the bulk of the minutes.

All that said, I can't see the Celtics' beating the Magic four out of seven if Orlando is anywhere near full strength for this series. I expect the C's to struggle to score all series long, making their margin of error too small to beat Orlando consistently.

My prediction: Magic in 6

Western Conference


Denver (57.3%) vs. Dallas (42.7%): For those who are curious, the odds say the likelihood of winning two rounds to advance out of the mystery quadrant are 38.7 percent for Denver, 28.8 percent for San Antonio, 21.8 percent for Dallas and 10.8 percent for New Orleans.

I like Denver to emerge, thanks to its home court and the ability of Anthony to make big shots down the stretch. If you look at clutch shooting stats over the past few years, he's the unquestioned king, even better than LeBron and Kobe. While he can't touch those guys in the first 47 minutes, it's a nice crutch to have in the final seconds.

Denver can also put defensive ace Kenyon Martin on Nowitzki, while the Mavs don't have as strong a defender available for Anthony, especially with Howard's ankle remaining troublesome. I should also note that the Mavs lost all four times they faced the Nuggets in the regular season.

They'll fare a little better this time around, but they'll still come away with four losses.

My prediction: Nuggets in 7


Los Angeles (54.9%) vs. Portland (45.1%): Plenty of people, I'm sure, don't expect the Lakers to have any problem with the youthful Trail Blazers, if Portland can handle Houston.

So let me throw out these numbers (with the scoring margin adjusted for home and road games):

Team A: 22-8, +7.9 adjusted scoring margin
Team B: 23-7, +6.9 adjusted scoring margin

Team A, as you might have guessed, is Portland since the All-Star break, and Team B is L.A. Over the past two months the Blazers have played at least as well as the Lakers, including beating them twice by a combined 25 points. That comes with a 7-foot asterisk since Andrew Bynum missed much of that time with an injury, but it shows the margin between the teams isn't nearly as large as people might think.

Or try these: 20, 20, 21, 35, 3, 12, 8, 15, 30 and 28. Those were the Blazers' margins of victory while taking 10 of their final 11 games. They weren't just beating teams, folks, they were beating the holy hell out of them. And their road woes ceased late in the year; the Blazers won seven of their final nine road games, and one of the losses was at Cleveland in overtime.

I expect the Lakers to advance, thanks to their home-court advantage and the return of Bynum, but this is going to be a much, much tougher series than people think, and I think I might be the only person outside Portland who wouldn't be shocked if the Blazers ended up prevailing.

My prediction: Lakers in 7

CONFERENCE FINALS

Eastern Conference


Cavs (59.4%) vs. Magic (40.6%): The computer retains a healthy respect for the Magic despite their late-season struggles, and we shouldn't gloss over these facts: Orlando had two lopsided wins over Cleveland this season and its lone defeat against the Cavs was by four points. Additionally, if the Magic make it this far, we have to presume that Turkoglu and Lewis will be at or near full strength, so those injuries aren't likely to be a factor.

Chances of winning the East based on computer projections
Team Odds of winning title
Cleveland 50.0
Orlando 29.2
Boston 10.0
Atlanta 3.5
Miami 3.3
Chicago 1.6
Philadelphia 1.6
Detroit 0.8

The bigger problem for Orlando is my perception of each team's upside. The Cavs can play LeBron nearly every minute of every game in the playoffs if they have to, which allows them to punch far above their regular-season weight. Meanwhile, I'm wondering if the Magic aren't regular-season overachievers who can't push the elevator to another floor in the postseason.

Perhaps they prove me wrong here; certainly I like how they match up against Cleveland well enough to think they'll win twice. But I can't see them pushing things to a seventh game, much less winning it.

My prediction: Cavs in 6

Western Conference Finals


Lakers (72.2%) vs. Nuggets (27.8%): Having personally witnessed the Lakers' four-game demolition of Denver a year ago, and noting that L.A. beat Denver three times out of four in the regular season this year, I think we can emphatically say that this is a terrible matchup for the Nuggets. They have nobody who can guard Kobe Bryant -- last year they resorted to the likes of Kenyon Martin and even Eduardo Najera -- and the length of Gasol and Bynum gives their front line fits.

Chances of winning the West based on computer projections
Team Odds of winning title
L.A. Lakers 35.3
Portland 22.7
Denver 12.8
Houston 9.0
San Antonio 8.8
Dallas 5.8
Utah 3.1
New Orleans 2.5

In fact, the real conference finals matchup is going to be the second round, where either Portland or Houston has a much better shot at beating L.A. than the winner of the mystery bracket. And Denver's chances don't improve much if L.A. is out of the way. Even with home-court advantage, the Nuggets lose 57.0 percent of the pairings to Houston and 65.8 percent to Portland; the numbers for San Antonio (60.2 percent and 68.1 percent, respectively) are nearly identical.

In either of those matchups I'd expect the series to go at least six games. The same can't be said of Lakers-Nuggets: The altitude should get Denver one game, but that's as far as I'm willing to go.

My prediction: Lakers in 5

NBA FINALS


Cleveland (54.4%) vs. Los Angeles (45.6%): Call it David Stern's dream matchup. Kobe versus LeBron, a battle of the past two MVP winners (presuming LeBron wins this year), and one that matches the biggest stars in L.A. and New York (just kidding, Cavs fans). Let's just say there are going to be some deflated-looking people at the TV networks if we get Portland-Orlando instead.

Most common Finals matchups and results
Pairing % of sims % won by East team
Cleveland-L.A. 18.1 54.5
Cleveland-Portland 1.5 55.6
Orlando-L.A. 10.0 41.8
Orlando-Portland 6.5 50.5
Cleveland-Denver 6.4 70.4
Cleveland-San Antonio 4.2 79.0
Cleveland-Houston 4.1 66.8
Orlando-Denver 3.9 68.4
Boston-L.A. 3.3 31.3

The Lakers won both regular-season meetings, a positive indicator in their favor, but the Cavs will get the last two games on their home court, where they were 39-1 in games they tried to win. Yes, the Lakers were responsible for the "1", but that doesn't mean they're going to romp through the Q this time around.

Again, the Cavs' ability to play LeBron the whole game makes them a much more imposing team in the playoffs than they are in the regular season, as Boston found out a year ago, when a Cleveland team that gave up more points than it scored in the regular season took the mighty Celtics to the wire in a seventh game before succumbing.

This year, it's time to crown King James. I expect the Lakers to make this not just a competitive series, but a downright classic one. But in the end, the combination of the crowd at the Q and the best player in the world will be too much for the Lakers.

My prediction: Cavs in 7

screw him and his ****ing computer prjocet..he can shove it to his ***. this series goes to 6 or 7 games and baynum and stuckey gonna kill them.
screw him screw lebron Kobe and stern

I've never seen Hollinger write a nice article about Detroit since he came out with his formulas. This is nothing new.

Don't care. Most people feel that way. He just gets to write his opinion.

Don't have a problem with it.

Hollinger is a joke...the Blazers have no chance of beating the Lakers.

quote:

Originally posted by tetris:
Hollinger is a joke...the Blazers have no chance of beating the Lakers.

the blazers would kill lakers actually cuz roy **** on kobe..but they cant handle with yao and the rockets

Wow seriously.... what a tard. He needs to get a life and start actually doing his job and analyzing the match ups to just write us off in 4 games is completely unprofessional.

Hopefully the Pistons players see this and post it up in the locker room or something to motivate everyone.

FUEL TO THE FIRE BABY!

To be honest, despite my understanding of how difficult is the situation for our team, I felt kinda mad when I read that piece of .... sports "journalism". Its very unprofessional from him to write such crap, take your time and tell us why the cavs are so freaking Godly that a team with Stuckey-Rip-Prince-Dice-Sheed cant compete with them.

Im not saying we can beat them, but I were a Cavs fan I wouldnt bet my money on a sweep. Sweeping teams aint easy, we own Orlando and we couldnt sweep them last year. Its not like Cleveland has utterly destroyed us all year, the games were competitive except for one, pistons just couldnt close out a couple of those contest and thats why they won 3 of the 4.

I just hope this guys play beautiful ball tomorrow like they used to and get the surprising win, just to send an email to that guy telling him to shove 30 terabytes of basketball data up his @ss.

what bothered me was that he didn't even write a paragraph or anything for our series like he did for EVERY OTHER SERIES

straight up disrespect...i dont care if you believe that the cavs will sweep and win by 50 every game....you job is to tell us why...this is locker room material and if this doesnt fire them up nothing will....im hoping and praying the pistons can pull out game 1 even if they didnt win the series it would make the media look kinda dumb....well at least for 2 days. LEts go boys...**** the cav **** bron **** this article

In a Fallout 3 mod, I am in VATS mode and have a 67% chance of hitting Hollinger in the head, but a 95% chance of hitting him in the torso. Should I land a critical hit, I may be able to make his arms and legs pop off via the Bloody Mess perk. I believe I'll have more success doing so if I aim for the head, but I have a greater chance of missing.

Risk/reward, what should I do?

I love statistical data...

quote:

Originally posted by swift_carlos:
To be honest, despite my understanding of how difficult is the situation for our team, I felt kinda mad when I read that piece of .... sports "journalism". Its very unprofessional from him to write such crap, take your time and tell us why the cavs are so freaking Godly that a team with Stuckey-Rip-Prince-Dice-Sheed cant compete with them.

Im not saying we can beat them, but I were a Cavs fan I wouldnt bet my money on a sweep. Sweeping teams aint easy, we own Orlando and we couldnt sweep them last year. Its not like Cleveland has utterly destroyed us all year, the games were competitive except for one, pistons just couldnt close out a couple of those contest and thats why they won 3 of the 4.

I just hope this guys play beautiful ball tomorrow like they used to and get the surprising win, just to send an email to that guy telling him to shove 30 terabytes of basketball data up his @ss.

I agree. The Cavs are still extremely dependent on Lebron, but not as much as last year. They've guys that have stepped up this season. But if you take Lebron out of the picture, they are just as bad as the Wizards. Where when we took Chauncey out of the picture, we are still a playoff team that can still compete with top teams. Even the Lakers are still a good team without Kobe. That's one reason I don't want to see this Cleveland team win a championship. They're garbage in my opinion. I know they've a great record, that just makes them hot garbage.

quote:

Originally posted by detfan08:

quote:

Originally posted by swift_carlos:
To be honest, despite my understanding of how difficult is the situation for our team, I felt kinda mad when I read that piece of .... sports "journalism". Its very unprofessional from him to write such crap, take your time and tell us why the cavs are so freaking Godly that a team with Stuckey-Rip-Prince-Dice-Sheed cant compete with them.

Im not saying we can beat them, but I were a Cavs fan I wouldnt bet my money on a sweep. Sweeping teams aint easy, we own Orlando and we couldnt sweep them last year. Its not like Cleveland has utterly destroyed us all year, the games were competitive except for one, pistons just couldnt close out a couple of those contest and thats why they won 3 of the 4.

I just hope this guys play beautiful ball tomorrow like they used to and get the surprising win, just to send an email to that guy telling him to shove 30 terabytes of basketball data up his @ss.

I agree. The Cavs are still extremely dependent on Lebron, but not as much as last year. They've guys that have stepped up this season. But if you take Lebron out of the picture, they are just as bad as the Wizards. Where when we took Chauncey out of the picture, we are still a playoff team that can still compete with top teams. Even the Lakers are still a good team without Kobe. That's one reason I don't want to see this Cleveland team win a championship. They're garbage in my opinion. I know they've a great record, that just makes them hot garbage.

Hollinger is an idiot and a hack... he gets far more credit (and payroll) than his "analysis" deserves.

We know lebron will get a ton of whistles so we need to make him EARN every free throw with good HARD fouls every time he enters the paint. Make him dish, make him take jumpers. I'd like to see us finish up every game in this series with our bigs having commited 4 or 5 good hard fouls each. Time to bring back the Bad Boys defense... it's our only real shot to win this series. Keep lebron from going off every game by covering him with Tay or Afflalo and then having a big to deliver some punishment if he gets around the first defender. And if another guy like Delonte West or Mo Williams starts getting hot, a good hard foul or two to knock them on their butts would be in order too.

If Hollinger is an idiot, why is it that he predicted the Spurs would win it all in 2007 when every other analyst was obsessed with the Mavericks? It was his system and his numbers that predicted that.

i heard he wants Delontes lucky charms so he is all over clev....nuts this post season....
i would give anything to see him in a leprechaun suit...and god **** shave ur corn rows u look retarded

quote:

.and god **** shave ur corn rows u look retarded

Very insightful and funny.

quote:

Originally posted by No Offense:
If Hollinger is an idiot, why is it that he predicted the Spurs would win it all in 2007 when every other analyst was obsessed with the Mavericks? It was his system and his numbers that predicted that.

And Nostradamus predicted a lot of disasters and was wrong on a lot as well. Just like the BCS, projection systems are just that, projections.

You can never take away human element and things that can naturally occur.

Although it is highly unlikely, Lebron could come out and have the worst series of his life and average 15 points a game. A computer can't take that into account.

Why would anyone think the Mavericks could beat the Spurs or the Spurs wouldn't win the title anyway?

i give hollenger 100 % odds that i would puch him in his mouth if i saw him in the street

I have been a life-long Pistons fan, but I actually agree with Hollinger here. Detroit struggled all year to win/finish games against poor teams. The Cavs are not a poor team. They are in fact a very, very good team. Cleveland has rallied around it's "King" in a way that I have never seen before in the NBA. They truly are better than the sum of their parts.

Don't get me wrong, I want a Championship for the Pistons this year, but I don't think that they are a championship team. After all, when was the last time a championship team spent 82 games playing sub-.500 ball before 'turning it on'?

Go Pistons!! Please prove me wrong!!!

quote:

Originally posted by Wisdom or Logic?:
I have been a life-long Pistons fan, but I actually agree with Hollinger here. Detroit struggled all year to win/finish games against poor teams. The Cavs are not a poor team. They are in fact a very, very good team. Cleveland has rallied around it's "King" in a way that I have never seen before in the NBA. They truly are better than the sum of their parts.

Don't get me wrong, I want a Championship for the Pistons this year, but I don't think that they are a championship team. After all, when was the last time a championship team spent 82 games playing sub-.500 ball before 'turning it on'?

Go Pistons!! Please prove me wrong!!!

I completely agree. And that is also why I don't have a problem with Hollinger's article: it's true. We gotta go out there and prove something. It doesn't matter what we HAD accomplished. We don't live in the past. Time to get the job done again.